2006 Predictions

Throwing my hat in the ring with random predictions...

* video internet gets real - this will be driven by the two killer apps, namely porn and pirated movies.

* google increases dominance over advertising - I learned the hard way in 2005 that nobody can compete with adsense. They just deliver too high an ecpm.

* msft xbox 360 catches on with bet on online and makes playstation look boring obsolete.(Having just wasted on PS2.) Computer AI just isn't as much fun. Its either too good or too bad. I'm addicted to 'rise of nations' online in the hope I can eventually beat a 13 year old at their own game. And besides, social and community always seem to win. Either video games get there or they go away.

* energy continues to be the big mover - in stocks and now startups too. My biggest safe pick is valero.

* foreign internet becomes biggest new growth story - baidus in a lot of countries.

* lots of hedge funds blow up - some collapse from big money leaving fast and others from more scandals driven by managers doing anything legal or not to keep their fees.

* craigslist becomes google of classifieds - turns down 1 billion buyout offer. (I predicted last year someone would offer 500M, and maybe they did.)

* social media moves from niche to all media status - every media develops a social media strategy.

* blogs move to mainstream status - 30 % share of 'first news page' share as goog news.

* residential RE slow decline becomes more evident (really already started).

* markets largely ignore actions by the new fed as they have for the past decade with grenspan. I don't believe the federal govt has had any impact on the economy in decades.

* reese witherspoon and brokeback mtn win oscars (according to my friend vermut, but neither of us have seen either of them).

* dick cheney suffers a major heart attack. Condie rice becomes first female vp and shoe in for 08 ticket. The dems then have no choice but to run hilary in the hopes people want more bill. This swings the female vote as they really like bill too.

* US equities totally flat.

* in a surprise move, the DNC appoints me head of strategy and embraces the revolution of the ants. I keep dean for his org skills.

* goog passes 500 a share and takes the mantle of 'the new microsoft'.

* msft drops below 20 a share and becomes 'the new ibm'.

* online advertising exceeds all growth predictions including this one (like the circ?). This happens as every MBA at p&g wants to buy the new measurable media over old guess media. Cpm's surpass $5.00 (making goog even richer).

* newspapers start to really die. Course this is left to the kkr's who buy them and fire everyone. Sent wirelessly via BlackBerry from T-Mobile.