Mark Pincus Blog

More on why 5 star hotels still rate 3

Could someone clue them in on the fact that post 911, travelers need toothpaste in their room more than any other item? Sent wirelessly via BlackBerry from T-Mobile.

How will $15 per gallon change our lives?

While higher oil prices has been good for my portfolio, I'm curious what impact it will have on us outside of potentially driving inflation and recessionary pressures.

I wonder whether it will accelerate a long trend towards re-urbanization as people see commuting as too expensive or will it drive more people to suburbs that have direct train access. Will companies have to relocate around public transport depots? Maybe in 10-20 yrs we live and work in giant malls like logans run all served by electric trains and moving walkways.

Will driving an suv or truck become a gas fueled status symbol (that you can afford it) or a social stigma like watering your lawn in vegas? (Probably latter).

Will we move back to our roots and travel less? Will people live closer to home as flights get prohibitive?

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Obama and Israel

        Here are 2 very interesting articles on Barack’s strongly pro-Israel views:         (1)        Jeffrey Goldberg’s 5/12/08 Atlantic interview with Barack, including Barack’s statements that:

* [I have] enormous emotional attachment and sympathy for Israel, mindful of the hardship and pain and suffering that the Jewish people have undergone, but also mindful of the incredible opportunity…when people finally return to a land.
* The idea of a secure Jewish state is a fundamentally just idea, and a necessary idea…[providing a] sense of confidence and security…that the Jewish people can take care of themselves no matter what happens.
* The need to preserve a Jewish state that is secure…should be supported here in the U.S. and around the world.
* In my early political life in Chicago, one of the raps against me in the black community is that I was too close to the Jews.
* Hamas is…a terrorist organization and I’ve repeatedly condemned them…we should not be dealing with them until they recognize Israel, renounce terrorism, and abide by previous agreements.
* My commitment…to Israel’s security is non-negotiable.
* I was very adamant about Israel’s right to defend itself…there’s not a nation-state on Earth that would tolerate [what Hezbollah and Hamas have done and are doing].
* Nobody should mistake [my desire to open dialog with Iran] for a softer stance…you will not see, under my presidency, any slackening in commitment to Israel’s security.         (2)        Martin Peretz’s 5/13/08 New Republic article, including Marty’s statements that:

* [Part of the] campaign against Barack Obama [has been]…based on ridiculous and ridiculously false accusations.
* Obama’s own personal history and his political convictions predisposed him towards Israel.
* [Obama knows] there is a strong will to peace in Israel and among the Israelis.  What is yet to be proven, Obama believes, is that there is a will, deep and wide, among the Palestinians. Sent wirelessly via BlackBerry from T-Mobile.

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Interesting that I find myself disagreeing with forbes publisher rich karlgaard on almost everyone of his new investment/portfolio ideas (may 5, forbes, p.29).

He lays out defensive actions people can take if housing prices drop further (which I'm generally in agreement on). These ideas may be from a fellow forbes writer, gary shilling. Wasn't totally clear. Either way I'm baffled.

Overall, I disagree with the americentric view that any recession will hit the rest of world worse.

* he says short commodities, I say go long. Based on his belief that worldwide demand will fall. I think that worldwide demand will keep rising as developing countries like china and india increase stds of living and experience growing demand for key economic inputs like oil and steel. Commodities should also gain as the dollar continues to fall.

* he says short emerging mkts while I'm neutral. I believe they will outperform us but may not deliver much as worldwide growth slows.

* he says buy US dollar, while I say sell. With the fed lowering interest rates and general demand for US assets declining I don't see what could prop the dollar up. My only question is how fast it declines as it will be buffetted by problems in other economies too. Should decline most drastically against china (if the govt allows) and other asian currencies, also against all countries with large oil exports like brazil, sweden, arab countries and possibly mexico.

* he says sell US stocks. Agree completely, with exception of oil and oil rig leasing cos.

* he says sell your house fast. Agree!

* says sell commercial real estate. I'm neutral. Rents could go up with inflation while amounts owed on mortgages are fixed.

* he says buy long treasury bonds which I disagree with. Seems that US rates will have to go up at some point in order to attract capital, esp once expected annual dollar declines get factored in.

Will be fun to see how this plays out. Wish I had the time and hedge fund to act on my macro beliefs:) Sent wirelessly via BlackBerry from T-Mobile.

Disagreeing with Forbes on macro outlook

Interesting that I find myself disagreeing with forbes publisher rich karlgaard on almost everyone of his new investment/portfolio ideas (may 5, forbes, p.29).

He lays out defensive actions people can take if housing prices drop further (which I'm generally in agreement on). These ideas may be from a fellow forbes writer, gary shilling. Wasn't totally clear. Either way I'm baffled.

Overall, I disagree with the americentric view that any recession will hit the rest of world worse.

* he says short commodities, I say go long. Based on his belief that worldwide demand will fall. I think that worldwide demand will keep rising as developing countries like china and india increase stds of living and experience growing demand for key economic inputs like oil and steel. Commodities should also gain as the dollar continues to fall.

* he says short emerging mkts while I'm neutral. I believe they will outperform us but may not deliver much as worldwide growth slows.

* he says buy US dollar, while I say sell. With the fed lowering interest rates and general demand for US assets declining I don't see what could prop the dollar up. My only question is how fast it declines as it will be buffetted by problems in other economies too. Should decline most drastically against china (if the govt allows) and other asian currencies, also against all countries with large oil exports like brazil, sweden, arab countries and possibly mexico.

* he says sell US stocks. Agree completely, with exception of oil and oil rig leasing cos.

* he says sell your house fast. Agree!

* says sell commercial real estate. I'm neutral. Rents could go up with inflation while amounts owed on mortgages are fixed.

* he says buy long treasury bonds which I disagree with. Seems that US rates will have to go up at some point in order to attract capital, esp once expected annual dollar declines get factored in.

Will be fun to see how this plays out. Wish I had the time and hedge fund to act on my macro beliefs:) Sent wirelessly via BlackBerry from T-Mobile.